Thursday 1 September 2016

Investec: US election: A new paradigm?

The rancour and taunts of July’s Republican National Convention laid bare a profound shift in the political atmosphere in the United States. Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has provided a strong figurehead for an anti-globalisation, anti-establishment, anti-immigration lobby. This movement largely rejects the Anglo-American mantra that dominates global finance and is institutionalised in the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

This sentiment is by no means confined to the US. Across the developed world there is discontent with the current status quo. In Europe this has been embodied by the UK’s surprise vote to leave the European Union in June, and in Austria where Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party, a right-populist group with an antiimmigrant, Eurosceptic platform is in the lead for a re-run of the country’s presidential election. Even mainstream political parties are reconsidering their positions on key issues, particularly immigration and overt economic protectionism, in response to the rise of the right.
But the US is the world’s largest economy and last remaining super power. Even its partial withdrawal from global trade and geopolitical decisions will have fundamental implications for the future shape of the global economy.

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