Thursday, 30 September 2010
Tuesday, 28 September 2010
Thursday, 23 September 2010
The concern of the Bogan report, as well as other market participants I’ve been talking to, is that the complexity of exchange-traded funds and their increased use as trading vehicles by hedge funds can be quietly but quickly creating serious market risk.
Greenberg: Can an ETF Collapse? - CNBC
Tuesday, 21 September 2010
Monday, 20 September 2010
● Political risks have been exaggerated - The stereotype of an African country ruled by one-party or military dictators is outdated and exaggerated. More than 90% of African nations now have functioning democracies.
● Strong economic and market growth - Nine of the 15 countries with the highest 5 year growth rate are in Africa and the continent is urbanizing at a faster rate than India and is already as nearly urbanized as China.
● Increased global demand for commodities - Africa holds an estimated 30% of the world’s mineral reserves. A supply that simply cannot be ignored. As BRIC countries industrialize, their demand for natural resources will keep increasing and they are turning to Africa as a source of scarce natural resources - especially energy and industrial metals. If you believe in the commodity growth story over the next five (5) years, Africa will be a prime beneficiary of that growth.
● The China Factor- China has increased its trade with Africa from $10 billion to $90 billion over the past decade. China is committed to investing its growing reserves into real assets around the globe and specifically commodities to secure its future economic growth. Africa as the mineral reserves and should benefit.
Sunday, 19 September 2010
Friday, 17 September 2010
Wednesday, 15 September 2010
Monday, 13 September 2010
Thursday, 9 September 2010
Wednesday, 8 September 2010
Tuesday, 7 September 2010
Monday, 6 September 2010
Wednesday, 1 September 2010
But we think the converse is more likely: the weak stock market is causing the economy to weaken. It is not a surprise that the recent US consumer confidence numbers were so poor; with the stock market having fallen so sharply since late April, they could hardly be otherwise.
It’s a truism in capital markets that the best investments are those that have previously done worst, where expectations are low, demand is down, and prospects appear at best highly uncertain. In 1980, bonds had been through a 30-year bear market relative to stocks, inflation was soaring, yields were at historic highs, yet expected to go higher, and a long bull market in bonds was at hand.
All the tailwinds of H1 will become headwinds in H2. As state and local governments keep retrenching and even the federal stimulus diminishes, the fiscal stimulus will turn into a fiscal drag that will be much more pronounced in 2011 and after some of the 2001-03 tax cuts expire. The base effects from the lousy economic activity figures of 2009 are gone, temporary census hiring is finished and tax incentives—cash for clunkers, the investment tax credit, the first-time homebuyer tax credit and cash for green appliances—have all expired after “stealing” demand and growth from the future.
The truth is that we have not had much of a recovery in the first place, which might prevent the economy from falling enough to display what many would label a double dip—although we are now assigning a 40% probability to such an outcome.